Objectives: We aimed to determine the agreement between actual and predicted core body temperature, using the Heat Strain Decision Aid (HSDA), in non-Ground Close Combat (GCC) personnel wearing multi terrain pattern clothing during two stages of load carriage in temperate conditions.

Design: Cross-sectional.

Methods: Sixty participants (men = 49, women = 11, age 31 ± 8 years; height 171.1 ± 9.0 cm; body mass 78.1 ± 11.5 kg) completed two stages of load carriage, of increasing metabolic rate, as part of the development of new British Army physical employment standards (PES). An ingestible gastrointestinal sensor was used to measure core temperature. Testing was completed in wet bulb globe temperature conditions; 1.2-12.6°C.
Predictive accuracy and precision were analysed using individual and group mean inputs. Assessments were evaluated by bias, limits of agreement (LoA), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE). Accuracy was evaluated using a prediction bias of ± 0.27°C and by comparing predictions to the standard deviation of the actual core temperature.

Results: Modelling individual predictions provided an acceptable level of accuracy based on bias criterion; where the total of all trials bias ± LoA was 0.08 ± 0.82°C. Predicted values were in close agreement with the actual data: MAE 0.37°C and RMSE 0.46°C for the collective data. Modelling using group mean inputs were less accurate than using individual inputs, but within the mean observed.

Conclusion: The HSDA acceptably predicts core temperature during load carriage to the new British Army non-GCC PES, in temperate conditions.