Objective: To identify the risk factors identified within one month post stroke that predict the onset of post-stroke shoulder pain (PSSP) within the first year after stroke.

Methods: Five databases (AMED, CINAHL, EMBASE, Medline, PubMed) were searched from inception to April 2019. prospective cohort studies that measured a potential risk factor for post-stroke pain within the first Month after stroke were included. Two authors independently reviewed and selected articles for inclusion. Risk of bias was asssessed using the Quality in Prognosis Studies tool. Data extracted included raw data for odds ratio (OR) calculations, definitions and measurements of pain, study limitations and baseline characteristics of participants. The review was conducted following PRISMA guidelines.

Results: Nine articles were retrieved that met the inclusion criteria, and six presented data to use in meta-analysis. Fifty-four different factors were identified as potential risk factors. Meta-analysis was possible for four factors; sex (OR 0.93, CI 0.75-1.15), laterality (OR 0.78, CI 0.59-1.05), diabetes (OR 2.09, CI 1.16-3.78), and history of shoulder pain (OR 2.78, CI 1.29-5.97). Reduced motor function in the upper limb was also identified as a significant risk factor through qualitative synthesis.

Conclusions: Reduced motor function in the upper limb , diabetes and a history of shoulder pain were identified as significant risk factors for the development of PSSP within the first year after stroke. Recommendations to standardise future studies in this area have been made and it is suggested that defining subtypes of PSSP may aid future interventional studies.