Is the recovery of failing scenario analysis a legitimate and valuable activity?

Leseure, Michel (2018) Is the recovery of failing scenario analysis a legitimate and valuable activity? World Futures Review. ISSN 1946-7567

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Abstract

There is a rich academic literature about scenario planning expressing concerns with improving the effectiveness of scenario analysis as a process and with scenario methods being misused. Controlling for process execution and reacting to unforeseen events to avoid downside risks is the domain of operational control. Mechanisms for operational control are normally deployed ex ante, in-process, and ex post. A review of the scenario analysis literature from an operational control perspective leads to the conclusion that ex ante control mechanisms are extensively discussed. In-process control mechanisms are also discussed extensively, but only by some authors. Ex post controls are almost never discussed. This suggests that when a scenario analysis goes wrong it cannot be reworked or recovered. This is a surprising implicit proposition and this paper uses a case study approach to challenge this omission and to conclude that, like for many other business processes, rework and recovery of scenario analysis can be a legitimate and valuable activity.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Scenario analysis, operational control, scenario failure, recovery
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HF Commerce
Divisions: Departments > Business School
Related URLs:
Depositing User: Michel Leseure
Date Deposited: 27 Sep 2018 15:16
Last Modified: 15 Nov 2018 10:16
URI: http://eprints.chi.ac.uk/id/eprint/3826

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